It is the year 2050. Nigeria is the world’s 13th largest economy and China’s Gross Domestic Product, the largest in the world, is almost double that of the USA. Now one of the top 20 economies, Nigeria experienced consistent and rapid growth due to its youthful working population and prudent use of oil wealth to improve infrastructure and institutions necessary for a diversified economy- Building Africa on Solid BRICS, Ventures Africa magazine, volume 3/2013.
Countries in other continents of the globe have witnessed development and economic prosperity before now, and the time for countries in Africa for transformational experience has actually arrived. President Barack Obama once said that Nigeria is critical to the rest of the continent and if Nigeria does not get it right, Africa will really not make more progress. The British Prime Minister David Cameron, has also said “Which continent has six of the ten fastest growing economies in the world? Asia? No, it’s Africa. Which country is predicted by some to have the highest average GDP growth in the world over the next 40 years? You think Brazil, Russia, India or China. No. Think Africa. Think Nigeria”.
A close look at the path of nations that have made it to economic prosperity will reveal the indispensable role of a clear vision form a dynamic leadership. This leadership in context transcends individuals but institutionalized leadership such that succeeding generations keep the vision flying. The era of National Development Plan from the pre-independence period to its last- the 1981-1985 NDP launched by President Sheu Shagari has contributed immensely to the growth of the nation before now. The stories of the good old times that some of the older generation talk about may be easily connected to the effect of the NDPs. The impact of the NDPs on education, infrastructures, industries and national unity among others cannot be over-emphasised.
After the end of the NDP era, the Millennium Development Goals have served tremendously as a rescue device for underdeveloped and developing nations, Nigeria inclusive. Unfortunately, the MDGs weren’t designed for any nation’s economic prosperity.
So, a national vision is the first step to a country’s growth. It is necessary to mention that the realisation of a vision may be viewed from two perspectives- one based on natural potentials and the other is based on commitment to develop capacity to fulfill it. Nigeria has what it takes to achieve whatever vision through its natural potentials while the population is also imbued with the spirit to develop competence for what seems to be out of reach.
Furthermore, I am compelled to share a part of the Pricewaterhouse Coopers World in 2050 report of January 2013 titled, “World in 2050: The BRICS and beyond: Challenges and Opportunities”.
China is projected to overtake the US as the largest economy by 2017 in purchasing power parity (PPP) terms and by 2027 in market exchange rates. India should become the third ‘global economic giant’ by 2050, a long way ahead of Brazil which is expected to move up to 4th place ahead of Japan.
Russia could overtake Germany to become the largest European economy before 2020 in PPP terms and around 2035 at market exchange rates. Emerging economies such as Mexico and Indonesia could be larger than the UK and France by 2050, and Turkey larger than Italy.
Outside the G20, Vietnam, Malaysia and Nigeria all have strong long term growth potential, while Poland should comfortably outpace the large Western European economies for the next couple of decades.
These were based on projected trends in demographics, capital investment, education levels and technological progress.
Having noted that Nigeria has the potential to truly become one of the 20 leading economies in the world, the pace of growth and commitment may not make it achievable in 2020. A short or medium term vision should not be misplaced for long term vision; even if progress is made, it would still appear as substantial failure. The ultimate expectation will be the measure of assessment rather than gradual work and progress evaluation to the ultimate. The vision of Nigeria for the year 2020 should not be to become one of the 20 leading economies by but rather to have achieved building a measure of infrastructure, repositioning institutions, employment generation for the teeming youth, standardised education sector, re-strategised policies among others. These are the indispensable conditions for realising the national vision.
From the above, I have identified key issues to discuss in line with Nigeria in 2050. They include leadership, working youthful population and demographic, oil wealth for infrastructure, Institutions, education and technology. But before I lead discussion on these, I consider it quintessential to discuss corruption and its harm to project Nigeria in 2050. Corruption shall be the subject for the next post which shall also include effective ways to rescue the nation from the scourge.
Olusola Akinyemi Esq.
President
Joseph Initiative Ltd/Gte
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