2015 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION IN PERSPECTIVE

2015 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION IN PERSPECTIVE

The time has come again when the national atmosphere is intensely charged. It is the battle for the office of the presidency of the Nigerian state for the next four years. Incidentally, there are fourteen contestants from different political parties but only two of them have gained the center stage of national attention. I am also constrained to focus this piece on the two candidates.

This piece is divided into two parts. The first will address the electorates who vary from one to another and what also influence them and their decisions are diverse. The other part shall succinctly consider the candidacy of Goodluck Ebele Jonathan (GEJ) and General Mohammed Buhari and will be concluded with how the various classes of electorates may determine the outcome of the election.

Electorates- There are different kinds of people constituting the electorates. Some are driven by religious sentiments such as a Christian being against the candidacy of a Muslim and vice-versa. However faith in a belief has not particularly helped anyone without substance to serve the interest of the public more. An example of the irrelevance of religious bias is the Governor of Lagos, who may not perfect person but has written his name in gold in the history of Lagos State. Religious sentiment though influence some people has no place in the competence of any leader.

Ethnic bias is another factor that beclouds the conscience of many. To them, it is not a matter of the competence or the general public’s interest but relationship or connection with a particular candidate. We now live in the age that should have advanced beyond tribal sentiment which conflicts with common welfare and prosperity of the public. Unfortunately, a number of the population is unapologetically locked up in this world.

The unenlightened class which seem to just follow the crowd or popular opinion is also there, irrespective of whether the crowd heads the right direction or not. They have little or no understanding or interest in whether a candidate has the competence and skill to make their lives better. This generation substantially considers election as a periodic ritual whether or not it improves their lives. Shockingly, this class constitutes about substantial percentage of the voters.

The enlightened class may be divided into two categories, one, those interested in public duties and responsibilities to achieve a better society and the others who are not just interested. The interested enlightened class is the exact group of people calling for issue based campaign. This class is dominated in no particular order by professionals, the press, public affairs analysts, the youth, academics, entrepreneurs and career persons. This class actually knows what is at stake when election period comes and the implication of making or not making the right choice of candidate for the assiduous task of the office of the President. Some of this class also understands the state of the country and the difference that the next four years can make if the right choice is made. It is probably the part of this class that will read this piece.

The Candidates

We are in interesting times, perhaps the most interesting since the Fourth Republic with respect to Presidential elections. The background to this is stating the fact that the incumbent president GEJ was able to mobilise the sympathy of the Nigerian people in 2011 to win the election. He was like the unwanted and he used it well to gain free goodwill from the Nigerian people. I remember having a job interview with my former employer who asked me of my choice candidate in the 2011 Presidential election. I mentioned another person’s name but I quickly mentioned that GEJ was going to win the election. However, many waters have passed under the bridge and GEJ will not get the victory in the Feb. 14 poll on sympathy but on how much he is able to convince the Nigerian people of why he should remain in office.

It is imperative to attempt a fair analysis of GEJ administration. He has attempted to consolidate on the efforts of the previous governments to attract Foreign Direct Investment in Nigeria. This he has done to the extent that Nigeria was announced by the 2012 World Investment Report (by UNCTAD) as the biggest FDI destination in Africa in 2011. In 2014, Nigeria rose to be the largest economy in Africa taking over from South Africa. However, in April 2014, the World Bank boss stated that Nigeria is one of the top five countries having the number of the poor. The poverty rate is still above 70%. The question to ask is if the country has the largest economy in Africa and the 26^th in the world, where is the monetary gain hanging? Obviously, the foreign investors who have unconditional right of repatriation of their profits and funds have taken the proceeds of the economic growth to their home countries. More so, economic growth is different from national development. This is what happens when the larger or major investors in a country are foreigners while the local investors are minimal. Small and Medium Scale Enterprises (SMEs) which are the major drivers of economy struggle due to essential factors as lack of power and public infrastructures with expensive capital having high interest rates.

With respect to infrastructure, GEJ has attempted some projects that are long overdue. These actually align with his transformation agenda. Such projects include four airports expansion project; reconstruction of very important highways- Lagos-Ibadan Expressway, Benin-Ore-Shagamu Expressway, Enugu-Portharcourt Expressway, Abuja-Lokoja Expressway among others; privatization of the Power Sector, and establishment of nine new universities among others. While these are commendable, it need be noted that the privatization of the power sector has not particularly improved the supply of electricity neither has the establishment of additional universities improved the standard of education in the country.

The works of two Federal Ministries are the bedrock of GEJ’s transformation agenda- the Ministries of Agriculture and Industry, Trade and Investment. The former has worked in the reduction of food importation and pushing Nigeria to be the largest producer of cassava. The latter has made relentless effort to boost investment in the country, the recent move being the national automotive policy. To the extent that the policy is in the best interest of the country and will generate massive employment in the long run, it needs to be scrupulously revisited. The plan to increase the import duty on vehicles to 70% immediately is untimely and more inimical to the interest of an average Nigerian many of whom do not have prospect of increased finance to either outrightly buy a car or will be credit-worthy to the banks to obtain facility to buy a brand new car. This plan is elitist to say the least as only the rich will be able to afford a car and further eliminate the middle class. The previous administrations had reviewed importable cars to ten year and later fifteen years. These appear friendly in pursuing the motive of Nigerians using decent cars. A policy designed to help the people should not inflict untoward hardship on the people; when this happens, it becomes a failed policy.

Security has been the major challenge of the GEJ administration just as the world peace and security is threatened by terrorism. This is the area where the administration has scored the least mark by the public. The continuous bombing by the Boko Haram sect which have taken the lives of over 13,000 Nigerian people, the abduction of the Chibok girls and many others who are still in captivity, the taking over of some parts of the country etc have sold his administration as a rather ineffective one. What has facilitated the poor perception of people is the lack of swift response by GEJ himself in making statement on some and being unable to raise the hope of the Nigerian people that such will not happen again. The most unaccepted is his refusal to visit the Chibok community and parents of the abducted girls. Upon the visit and recommendation of Malala Yousafzai the Pakistani teenage icon for girl child education, he rather chose to invite them to the villa which was followed by scandal of bribery of the parents. The challenge of insecurity is still a major issue in the country.

Corruption has been the synonym of the GEJ administration and the approach of the President has not helped in selling him well to the people. Statement such as stealing is not corruption is most unacceptable to the Nigerian people. In 2013, the former governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria, Lamido Sanusi, who is now the Emir of Kano said $49 billion was diverted by state oil company, Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation, NNPC. He later reviewed the amount to $20 billion, and called for investigations after writing to President Goodluck Jonathan. No account has been given for this money but the apex bank chief was suspended.

The Presidential pardon given to Alamieyeseigha who actually brought shame to the country in 2005 in the UK by dressing as a woman to escape to Nigeria after being help by the authority for money laundering shows GEJ’s allegiance to his former boss than his Oath to defend the Constitution and uphold the law of the country. That is actually constitutes abuse of office and sends a message of his stand for corruption and money laundering to the Nigerian people and the international community. His administration has set up committees to look into activities of corrupt practices and has done nothing with the culprits when the reports were submitted.

The foregoing among others are what lies in the heart of the Nigerian people whose votes GEJ hopes to get him back into office. The main campaign policy of GEJ is to consolidate on the achievements of his transformation agenda in the first term, complete projects and do more in education, infrastructures, economy and use technology to combat corruption. He also said in Lagos that the youth will take us to the moon although with no defined strategy.

General Buhari on the other hand has his past as Governor of the North Eastern State in 1975 under the General Muritala Mohammed regime until February 1976 when it was divided into Bauchi, Bornu and Gongola States, Minister for Petroleum in the Obasanjo led Military government between 1976-1978, he was the Military Head of State from 1983-1985 and was Chairman, Petroleum Trust Fund under the Abacha regime. It is public knowledge that General Buhari has carved a niche for himself as regards integrity and discipline. This has to an extent guided his administration.

While General Buhari was Petroleum Minister, it is on record that he built three refineries in Nigeria: one in Port Harcourt, another in Warri and the third in Kaduna. He masterminded the construction of twenty oil depots in Nigeria, laying over 3200 kilometers of pipeline. While he was Petroleum Minister, about $2.8 billion dollars was alleged to be missing. However, panels of enquiry set up by General Ibrahim Babangida who accused him did not find him guilty.

As a Military Head of State that overtook office through a military coup from Alhaji Sheu Shagari, General Buhari reshaped the country in terms of discipline. Apparently, the justification of the Military coup was the outrageous corruption of the Shagari administration. General Buhari therefore launched a war against indiscipline. Hundreds of corrupt politicians were arrested and jailed. He launched the widely accepted environmental sanitation, the people were compelled to obey traffic rules, not seller could just abruptly increase the cost of products to make undue profit, it was criminal to cheat during examinations, and neglect of children by parents attracted penalty.

During this regime, he discouraged Nigeria’s dependence on loan such that he cancelled the Rail transport project signed by the Shagari administration. This however doesn’t sound logical in a capitalist world. Entities may not be so successful and competitive in the capitalist system without loans. But during his administration, the Naira was so valuable in the foreign exchange market and inflation rate reduced from 23% to 5%.

As Chairman of the Petroleum Trust Development Fund (PTDF), he was in control of billions of dollars and used this to engage in massive road construction projects across Nigeria that the country has embarked on in the last sixteen years, supplied textbooks and learning materials to schools nationwide, supplied drugs to hospitals and rehabilitated the mass transit system.

It appears from the foregoing that discipline and development are the watchwords of General Buhari. Considering the state of the nation, these two are needed to move the nation forward. Corruption, insecurity and economic growth are at the front burner of General Buhari’s campaign promises. Infrastructures and institutions are inevitable ingredients to achieve this.

Two things seem congenial for General Buhari which are his choice of party and the choice of running mate. The All Progressives Congress has carved a niche for itself in the states where it has governors. Unprecedented infrastructural development has been achieved in Lagos, Ogun, Oyo, and Edo to mention but a few. One may safely expect the infrastructural development to take another dimension at the national level just as General Buhari has done in the past. The second is the choice of Prof. Yemi Osinbajo S.A.N. as a running mate. It can only be expected that if General Buhari gave his chief of staff Tunde Idiagbon the leeway to execute ideas, the best of the Prof. from the University of Lagos will be welcome to achieve a better nation.

Irrespective of the prospects of all the candidates including GEJ and General Buhari which are discussed above, it is the votes of the electorates who are influenced by different factors that will determine who takes the mantle of leadership from the February 14 Presidential election. It is however imperative to state that the days of sentimental decisions in public affairs are over it truly we want Nigeria to live to her full potential of becoming more than the most populous black nation to one of the greatest and wealthiest nations in the world.

It is also important that those who threaten violence with no regard to the Peace Pact signed by candidates should remember that the International Criminal Court (ICC) is always open to try offenders for crimes against humanity. Lessons should be drawn from the Kenyan election of 2007 which was followed by violence. The current President and Vice President of Kenya, Uhuru Kenyatta and William Ruto who are being tried be the ICC for crimes against humanity were accused of being responsible for the macabre killing of 1555 people, the displacement of 500,000, and destruction of property. Before we accuse the ICC of being set up against Africa, we should learn and take caution.

The Presidential election which is scheduled to hold on February 14 which is globally known as lovers’ day is a day where electorates should show their love for Nigeria like never before. The wellbeing, safety and progress of the country should be the guide of the electorates in choosing who will best lead the country for the progress and prosperity of every Nigerian citizen.

Olusola Akinyemi Esq.

President

Joseph Initiative Ltd/Gte

NIGERIA IN 2050 (III): DEVELOPMENT LEADERSHIP

Leadership is a tool for development and leaders play a key role in national transformation.

In the first post of Nigeria in 2050, I identified factors that are crucial to consider in the realisation of a country that will be one of the leading 20 economies in the world. Some people have argued that the African problem requires an African solution just as the Nigerian problem, Nigerian solution. We should note that there are general principles of development cutting across countries; though, the peculiarity of a situation or circumstance in a country will influence the application of such principle in its struggle for development. Here, we shall be discussing development leadership as a requirement to realise growth in Nigeria.

Leadership is an indispensable factor in national development. In fact, no nation has made it to development without the igniting force of a leader that’s passionate and/or knowledgeable in economic growth. It is necessary to quickly distinguish between the form and substance of leadership. The form of leadership is about the style of governance in a nation. This includes democracy, monarchy, presidential, parliamentary, communism, regional, federalism, unitary… systems of government. The substance of leadership on the other hand describes more the heart, vision, competence, commitment, exposure, quality of policies, and the quality of human resources working with a leader… The failure of the latter cannot be blamed on the former.

The practice of a particular form of governance style is not an automatic ticket to development, although, the visionary quality and dedication of a leader can do more to facilitate development under any system of government.

Leadership, more in the context of substance is the major driver for development. The history of nations that have made it to national prosperity shows the place of a leader that changed the national experience from poverty to wealth. From the book of Lee Kuan Yew, From Third World to First World, we can tell of the Singapore growth from how the leadership of Lee Kuan Yew, the first leader when Singapore became a state, set the pace of development which the country is still building on.

In the history of England, there was a time when the economic activity was export of wool to merchants in other countries who process it and sell back at more expensive rate. It was the ascension of King Henry IV that altered the situation and made England the hub of cloth manufacturing through policies that encouraged and protected local growth. The first Queen Elizabeth by the end of the 15th century concretised the age of industrialization with more policies and strategies for growth. That was where the wealth of the nation started.

There was the age of the Great Depression when the economy of the world was at a standstill or rather retrogressing.  This started in the United States of America in the 1920s. The sitting President, Herbert Hoover, had shown no interest in rescuing the situation. Then came the tenure of Franklin Delano Roosevelt whose aim was more to end the economic crisis. This started with aggressive decisions, policies and strategies that his predecessor has no gut to initiate such as proclaiming bank holiday, proposed and passed legislations to control and stabilize stock market, public work programmes, backed safety nets and social security system among others. FD Roosevelt moved the American power to a super power status. FD Roosevelt served an unpopular four terms in office from 1933-1945.Till date, the US economy remains great.

Germany in the early 19th century was described as a hopeless country where wealth was not feasible. But something happened in the era of the popular tyrant leader, Adolf Hitler in 1933. Though not particularly interested in economic theory, he had advisors who implemented economic reforms with impressive results. They formed forces that engaged the unemployed Germans as a vast work teams in public works, construction, clearance and agricultural labour. They also ensured local growth by reducing Germany’s dependence on foreign raw materials to about 33% and food importation to about 20%. Within three years, there was more or less full employment in Germany with an improving economy. In 1937, Hitler established Volkswagen to produce cheap cars for German families. The German economy has continued to improve since after Hitler’s administration.

More recent is what is globally discussed as the Rise of China. The beginning of the age of prosperity in China was ignited by the re-ascent of the reformist leader, Deng Xiaoping about 1978. The awakening of the Dragon was a deliberate and compelling project that brought about the economic revolution upon which the republic has developed into an irresistible global force beating nations ahead in wealth and rising to become the 2nd richest country in the world. I mentioned in the Nigeria in 2050 (I) that China is projected to overtake the US as the largest economy by 2017 in purchasing power parity (PPP) terms and by 2027 in market exchange rates. That is the positive economic effect of leadership in China.

I find it compelling to share an important part of the China story of development leadership. There was a leader whose administration was described as a catastrophic misrule, Mao Zedong. It was said that “he presided not over China’s re-emergence as a power, but over it dangerous isolation in global affairs. He inaugurated not an Age of Prosperity but a generation of self-destruction, terror, famine and impoverishment. As postwar East Asia prospered, China declined. When one marvels at China’s development today, just think of where it might have been without Mao Zedong.”

From this, I deduced that, if China is currently the second richest country in the world, and likely to become the richest by 2027, China still feels that if not for the leadership of Mao Zedong, China would have surpassed its present achievement and probably be the current richest and most influential country in the world. That is the cost of bad leadership on a country.

The starting point for Nigeria that will become on the 20 leading economies in the world by 2020 is development leadership. A leadership that will not just cast a vision but is committed to its achievement, and compelling every element and everyone to be a part of making it a reality.

A fair assessment of the Nigerian leadership since the return to civilian rule in 1999 will reveal that gradual measures are being taken towards realising economic growth. The recent announcement of the Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) rising to $510 billion thereby appreciating by 11 steps to become the 26th largest economy in the world ahead of South Africa tells of something. The citizens are however yet to feel the reality of this figure. Very worthy of remembrance is the quality of leadership that Chief Obafemi Awolowo exhibited as the Premier of the Western Region. It was such leadership that brought food to the table of an average resident in the region; infrastructural provision was massive and it was a leveler for all in terms of access education. Nothing short of this is what is needed to facilitate a national experience to make Nigeria one of the first 20 economies in the world with tangible proof to the citizenry.

In conclusion, the quality of development leadership needed to become one of the 20 leading economies must not be compromised. Such leadership is the kind that will be able to utilize all the potentials of Nigeria, including natural resources and human resources, the effective use of foreign relationships and creating the environment for all these to be at their best for our national interest and prosperity.

Olusola Akinyemi 

President

Joseph Initiative Ltd/Gte

NIGERIA IN 2050 (II): NATIONAL RESCUE FROM CORRUPTION

Corruption is a violation of the trust vested by its “stakeholders” in the holders of offices in any organisation, be it a government, trade union or even an NGO (non-governmental organisation). Ha-Joon Chang, Bad Samaritans- The Guilty Secret of Rich Nations and Threat to Global Prosperity.

Corruption is not just a current phenomenon in Nigeria. Our history shows that it has also been one of the justifications for military take-over of government in times past which has only increased geometrically now. With Nigeria having reputation for corruption, almost all aspects of our national life suffers from retarded growth including education, power, health, infrastructures, politics, industries, government, judiciary, and NGOs while religious organisations are no exception. It is now so endemic that a sizable number of our population (who also indulge and/or benefit from corruption) have lost hope that we can never get out of it, at least, in this generation.

The UNDP once described corruption as “the misuse of public power, office and authority for private gain through bribe, influence, peddling, nepotism, fraud, speed money or embezzlement”. The Zambian Anti-Corruption Commission also described it as “soliciting, acceptance, obtaining, giving, promising or offering of gratification by way of bribe or other personal temptation or inducement or the misuse of a public office for private advantage or benefit”. These two descriptions may not be exhaustive but substantially cover the field of corrupt practices. Chang’s statement on violation of trust is a constant factor in all forms of corruption.

To be real, we cannot refuse to acknowledge the causes of corruption which are critical to addressing the scourge. Not peculiar to Nigeria only, corruption may be caused by poor ethics and value system; poverty; illiteracy; tolerance; complex laws and procedures; complicated tax regime; weak government institutions; poor pay; low incentives; lack of transparency; monopoly by government-controlled enterprises on certain goods and services delivery; absence of effective political funding; and political desperation among others. All these have made Nigeria the 33rd most corrupt country according to World Corrupt index 2011. The reality of Nigeria becoming one of the 20 leading economies by 2050 is largely dependent on the solution to these causes.

Currently, corruption is a strong impediment to our national development, even as government decisions are easily influenced and/or distorted, infrastructural development fall below the required standard, the quality of education (which is quintessential to our future and prosperity) continues to be compromised, public leadership is more for private gain than public good, the civil service encourage bureaucracy that slows growth process, focus is on fast money by older, youth and younger generations as opposed to productivity and professional competencies with value development. These national realities frustrate development process and demand immediate solution for our national dream to come true.

Taking a hint from countries that take measures in reduction of the scourge of corruption, the solution covers education, punishment and development which we shall consider briefly.
Education: In view of the national vision to become one of the 20 leading economies, which corruption keeps frustrating, it is necessary to take initiative to enlighten the public on the benefit of transparency and shunning corrupt practices on the one hand, and the evil of corruption to common good on the other hand. All hands must be on deck for this. Government institutions must be involved, educational institutions and religious institutions must take the campaign of a corrupt-free nation seriously for national development.
While some have argued that those who sit on the throne of corruption will not concern themselves with such education, it is more important to guard against the continued spread. It is most likely that such education will reduce corrupt practices in the country.

Punishment: This is necessary to make those who engage in such practices suffer for indulging in practices that militate against national development and also serve as deterrence to many others. It was in this spirit that the Independent Commission against Corrupt Practices (ICPC) and the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) were established. It is necessary for these institutions and other law enforcement agencies to be efficient and effective and without bias in the prosecution of corrupt people. An independent judiciary is equally important as this is the hope of the people to make corrupt people (especially leaders) accountable. It is more important for the judiciary to purge and protect itself from all forms of corruption. The rule of law must be upheld for the realisation of our national vision. It is noteworthy that Nigeria has concerned itself more on punishment for corrupt practices than other options to reduce it.
Development: Though corruption is a strong impediment to development, yet, development may be the most potent way to reduce corruption. The place of poverty in corruption cannot be emphasised (though poverty is no justification).“When people are poor, it is easy to buy their dignity- starving people find it difficult not to sell their votes for a bag of flour, while under paid civil servants will often fail to resist the temptation to take a bribe”- Chang.
A level of economic development is required to discourage corruption thereby enhancing further development necessary to facilitate the national vision of becoming one of the 20 leading economies. What will enable the necessary economic development includes the provision of basic infrastructures like power, transportation, education, and healthcare. These can work wonders in reducing corruption.

Having attempted to connect education, punishment and development to reducing corruption, I will like to mention the place of leadership.
Leadership is everything, as everything rise and fall on leadership. We can discuss education, punishment and development in reducing corruption, but if there’s no leadership to drive these to play their respective roles in the national vision, they remain in the realm of theory.
The stand of leaders at the central and constituent levels in any setting is instrumental to the increase or reduction of corrupt practices. A leader who does not indulge in corrupt practices and refuse to be lured is more likely to achieve reduction thereby facilitating national development. On the other hand, a leader who indulges or may be does not indulge in corruption but does nothing at discouraging it will have a regime that increases corruption thereby making the national vision remain fictitious.
It is Leadership that can take initiative to remedy all the situations that cause corruption. Without effective and dedicated leadership, it is impossible to have a corrupt-free society and without a corrupt-free society, national dreams such as becoming a leading economy in the world is illusory. We need a country where holders of offices in any setting mention by Chang will not violate the trust vested in them by stakeholders; we need a country whose population does not struggle to feed or have unrestricted access to primary healthcare; we need a country of educated and enlightened citizens; and we need a country that values national interest over private gain. These will bring about the beginning of the end of the era of corruption.

The reality of Nigeria becoming the 13th largest economy by 2050 according to Pricewaterhouse Coopers January, 2013 report will be aided by a corrupt-free society. In fact, there is no such dream where corruption in endemic.

Olusola Akinyemi Esq.
President
Joseph Initiative Ltd/Gte

NIGERIA IN 2050 (I)

It is the year 2050. Nigeria is the world’s 13th largest economy and China’s Gross Domestic Product, the largest in the world, is almost double that of the USA. Now one of the top 20 economies, Nigeria experienced consistent and rapid growth due to its youthful working population and prudent use of oil wealth to improve infrastructure and institutions necessary for a diversified economy- Building Africa on Solid BRICS, Ventures Africa magazine, volume 3/2013.

Countries in other continents of the globe have witnessed development and economic prosperity before now, and the time for countries in Africa for transformational experience has actually arrived. President Barack Obama once said that Nigeria is critical to the rest of the continent and if Nigeria does not get it right, Africa will really not make more progress. The British Prime Minister David Cameron, has also said “Which continent has six of the ten fastest growing economies in the world? Asia? No, it’s Africa. Which country is predicted by some to have the highest average GDP growth in the world over the next 40 years? You think Brazil, Russia, India or China. No. Think Africa. Think Nigeria”.

A close look at the path of nations that have made it to economic prosperity will reveal the indispensable role of a clear vision form a dynamic leadership. This leadership in context transcends individuals but institutionalized leadership such that succeeding generations keep the vision flying. The era of National Development Plan from the pre-independence period to its last- the 1981-1985 NDP launched by President Sheu Shagari has contributed immensely to the growth of the nation before now. The stories of the good old times that some of the older generation talk about may be easily connected to the effect of the NDPs. The impact of the NDPs on education, infrastructures, industries and national unity among others cannot be over-emphasised.

After the end of the NDP era, the Millennium Development Goals have served tremendously as a rescue device for underdeveloped and developing nations, Nigeria inclusive. Unfortunately, the MDGs weren’t designed for any nation’s economic prosperity.

So, a national vision is the first step to a country’s growth. It is necessary to mention that the realisation of a vision may be viewed from two perspectives- one based on natural potentials and the other is based on commitment to develop capacity to fulfill it. Nigeria has what it takes to achieve whatever vision through its natural potentials while the population is also imbued with the spirit to develop competence for what seems to be out of reach.

Furthermore, I am compelled to share a part of the Pricewaterhouse Coopers World in 2050 report of January 2013 titled, “World in 2050: The BRICS and beyond: Challenges and Opportunities”.

China is projected to overtake the US as the largest economy by 2017 in purchasing power parity (PPP) terms and by 2027 in market exchange rates. India should become the third ‘global economic giant’ by 2050, a long way ahead of Brazil which is expected to move up to 4th place ahead of Japan.

Russia could overtake Germany to become the largest European economy before 2020 in PPP terms and around 2035 at market exchange rates. Emerging economies such as Mexico and Indonesia could be larger than the UK and France by 2050, and Turkey larger than Italy.

Outside the G20, Vietnam, Malaysia and Nigeria all have strong long term growth potential, while Poland should comfortably outpace the large Western European economies for the next couple of decades.

These were based on projected trends in demographics, capital investment, education levels and technological progress.

Having noted that Nigeria has the potential to truly become one of the 20 leading economies in the world, the pace of growth and commitment may not make it achievable in 2020. A short or medium term vision should not be misplaced for long term vision; even if progress is made, it would still appear as substantial failure. The ultimate expectation will be the measure of assessment rather than gradual work and progress evaluation to the ultimate. The vision of Nigeria for the year 2020 should not be to become one of the 20 leading economies by but rather to have achieved building a measure of infrastructure, repositioning institutions, employment generation for the teeming youth, standardised education sector, re-strategised policies among others. These are the indispensable conditions for realising the national vision.

From the above, I have identified key issues to discuss in line with Nigeria in 2050. They include leadership, working youthful population and demographic, oil wealth for infrastructure, Institutions, education and technology. But before I lead discussion on these, I consider it quintessential to discuss corruption and its harm to project Nigeria in 2050. Corruption shall be the subject for the next post which shall also include effective ways to rescue the nation from the scourge.

Olusola Akinyemi Esq.

President

Joseph Initiative Ltd/Gte

Nigeria in the global economy

Nigeria in the global economy

“With each day in Africa, a gazelle wakes up knowing he must outrun the fastest lion or perish. At the same time, a lion stirs and stretches, knowing he must outrun the fastest gazelle or starve. It is no different for the human race. Whether you consider yourself a gazelle or a lion, you simply have to run faster then others to survive” – Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum.

Globalisation has come to stay more so with the information technology lubricating it. Free trade economic policy in the international community has opened all nations into the field of competition. Nations of strength and weakness have been thrown into the same jungle in search of the ultimate: survival and prosperity. It is now a survival of the fittest.

Countries are now in competition with product and services. The best strategies to push excellent and cost efficient products in any available market are utilized to enhance national economic growth, profitable and safe business environment and good standard of living for the citizenry. Countries like the US, China, South Korea, India, Brazil and the United Arab Emirates keep growing all the muscles to survive and prosper in the competitive jungle of globalisation.

Nigeria has once been regarded as the giant of Africa. Some of what actually qualified the nation for the epithet are still existent which include the oil, solid mineral resources and arable land, while the likes of growing industry and human capital development via education are on rapid decline. Due to lack of maximum utilisation all available resources: mineral, human and capital among others, the nation continues to be a victim of consumption of the strong competitors in the global race for survival and prosperity.

The time is long due to wake up, have a clear vision that will be well communicated and understood by all Nigerians home and abroad, the government departments and institutions, civil servants, private sector, professional bodies and educational institutions will have all hands on deck to achieve the survival and prosperity of Nigeria and Nigerians.

Nigeria should never settle for the second place in anything. We should remember in the jungle of globalisation, the lion run very fast not starve but the gazelle run far faster to survive. In the new world, Nigeria has to wake up and take responsibility to grow all the muscles to survive and prosper.

Olusola Akinyemi Esq.

President

Joseph Initiative.

The Office and Person of a Public Leader

The Office and Person of a Public Leader

Leadership may be simply described as influence. Leadership prowess is the ability to make others do what they ordinarily wouldn’t have done to achieve a worthwhile common goal. In the public leadership context, it is when a public officers by election, appointment or elevation in public service among other individual influence drivers, can make subordinates and the public to achieve a goal in national/public interest.

There is a distinction between the office and the person of a leader, particularly a public leader. Though the personality of a leader will most likely inform his style of leadership but from the words of John C. Maxwell, ‘Leadership is more important than the leader’. So, when there is conflict between the office of a leader and the person of a leader, the office should prevail. The line can be thin, so, people don’t know when they cross it or care when they realise.

The person of a leader is shaped by his/her personality type, values, education, exposure, maturity and experiences while the office of a leader is guided by ethics and principles. The crux of ethics and principles is ‘national interest or public interest’ as the case may be.

A number of subjects of public concern including but not limited to national unity, public properties, infrastructure development, education, management of public resources and finance, and human capital development have been influenced more by the person of leaders than the ethics and standards of public leadership. The standard is high and the test hinges on discipline.

Discipline is what helps to strike the balance to know what decision to make when the office of leadership has not rubbed off on the person of a leader.

For the overall interest of the nation and public in every constituent, every leader and emerging leader should strive to identify the boundaries between his/her person as a leader and the office of leadership. Public leadership is more than the office euphoria or sense of self fulfillment or gain, it is about selfless service for national/public interest.

Olusola Akinyemi Esq.

President

Joseph Initiative

NATIONAL INTEREST: A PANACEA FOR DEVELOPMENT IN NIGERIA

NATIONAL INTEREST: A PANACEA FOR DEVELOPMENT IN NIGERIA

I have learnt that National Interest is the aggregate of interest of individuals and groups within a given state. It is all that a nation considers vital for its survival and prosperity. Proximate to this is protecting and preserving the interest of our citizens within the country and abroad. National capability on the other hand is described as the ability of a nation to protect its national integrity which is premised on national interest. The question to ask is what Nigeria’s national interest is and what national integrity are we protecting?

Section 19 of the 1999 Constitution of Nigeria which provides for Nigeria’s foreign policy objectives includes promotion and protection of National Interest, though it failed to define what it is. One of the problems of our national integrity may be lack of defined national interest.

The meaning is therefore left to what any leader who has interest in such definition gives it. Obasanjo in 1976 defined national interest of Nigeria as constituting four components-

1.      The creation of suitable political and economic environment in Africa and the world at large which will facilitate the defense of the territorial integrity of African states;

2.      The promotion of equality and self-reliance in Africa and the world;

3.      Defense of social justice and human dignity of the Black man; and

4.      The defense and promotion of world peace.

This may account for why Nigeria’s foreign policy is being referred to as Afrocentric.

However, from the description given earlier, Nigeria’s national interest should revolve more around the survival and prosperity of Nigerians, home and abroad than on the continent of Africa and the globe. In fact, the deeds of Nigeria in foreign relations should strategically center on Nigerians’ interest. Therefore, Nigeria’s national interest should include Nigeria’s economic prosperity, social welfare, and protection of the nation’s national security.

Having a concept of Nigeria’s national interest in mind, how best can we make it a panacea for national development? It is congenial to have an understanding of what National development may be described as. In context, it may include:

1.      Economic growth with a GDP and GDP Per Capita that is physically real to over 70% Nigerian being able to feed their families, afford education for family members (children and parents increasing skills), basic health care for the family. This will be identified by the following:

a.      Revival of the Agricultural sector,

b.     Functional manufacturing sector with uninterrupted power supply,

c.      Revival of the Mining sector,

d.     Provision of infrastructural facilities and enabling environment for the SMEs to thrive, and

e.      Nigerians being able to provide up to 70% of products and services consumed in Nigeria.

2.      Education sector overhaul: Civilisation, technological advancement and innovation flow towards environments with standard education. The standard of education should be increased with facilities and equipment adequate and functional;

3.      Exalted national ethics which include selflessness, discipline, integrity, dignity of labour, ethnic and religious tolerance, self-reliance and patriotism Section 23 of the Nigerian Constitution (selflessness and ethic tolerance mine);

4.      Security of the national territory for the safety of Nigerians and foreigners;

5.      Adequate and well equipped health care facilities with skilled staff. Reduction of child mortality, maternal mortality, containment of malaria and proximate illnesses, control of the spread of HIV/AIDS, reduction of death from curable diseases and maintenance of hygienic environment;

6.      Regional harmonization and security with interest in matters of global importance;

7.      Safe recreational and tourist attraction around the country;

8.      Practice of constructive politics that is built around national growth and international reputation as opposed to political party’s interest or leaders’ gain.

At this point, we will try to relate national interest to the components of national development described. It is in the interest of all persons that the components identified should be realised. In other words, it is in national interest for Nigeria to pursue and ensure the accomplishment of national development. The benefit of this extends beyond social welfare of every Nigerian to promoting an image of dignity, trust and opportunity for the citizens and the country to the international community.

Disregard to national interest is part of what has kept Nigeria as a developing nation of its current state for over fifty years of independence even in the midst of abundance of natural and human resources. President Obama one said, Nigeria is the major hope for real growth in Africa. But how are we trying to live up to this?

Just as we know of the US that national interest is a fundamental guide to its domestic policy and foreign relations, it is a pre-requisite for national development in Nigeria. Every citizen in whose benefit national interest is must rise to take responsibility for national development.

From a book titled Presidential Leadershiphttp://books.google.com.ng/books?id=myl2AAAAMAAJ&source=gbs_navlinks_s, a survey of the leadership of White House Presidents for George Washington to Bill Clinton, I observed that the US has attained the height of economic vibrancy and global political influence through continuous contribution of every generation of the country till date holding firmly to the watchword: national interest.

Upholding national interest by the leaders, policy influencers and makers, institutions, organisations, politicians and citizens in general is the ultimate guarantee to promote and realise national development in Nigeria. National interest will demand for contribution, discipline and sacrifice for us to experience all the components earlier described. Most assuredly, there will be better life for everyone both citizens and foreigner to trade, deal or visit us.

In conclusion, national interest should not be an abstraction but real to be held as a watchword for every citizen and leaders for the purpose of realizing national development. This is because national development is in the interest of every Nigerian.

Olusola Akinyemi Esq.

President

Joseph Initiative Ltd/Gte

olusola.akins@gmail.com

08077726199