2015 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION IN PERSPECTIVE

2015 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION IN PERSPECTIVE

The time has come again when the national atmosphere is intensely charged. It is the battle for the office of the presidency of the Nigerian state for the next four years. Incidentally, there are fourteen contestants from different political parties but only two of them have gained the center stage of national attention. I am also constrained to focus this piece on the two candidates.

This piece is divided into two parts. The first will address the electorates who vary from one to another and what also influence them and their decisions are diverse. The other part shall succinctly consider the candidacy of Goodluck Ebele Jonathan (GEJ) and General Mohammed Buhari and will be concluded with how the various classes of electorates may determine the outcome of the election.

Electorates- There are different kinds of people constituting the electorates. Some are driven by religious sentiments such as a Christian being against the candidacy of a Muslim and vice-versa. However faith in a belief has not particularly helped anyone without substance to serve the interest of the public more. An example of the irrelevance of religious bias is the Governor of Lagos, who may not perfect person but has written his name in gold in the history of Lagos State. Religious sentiment though influence some people has no place in the competence of any leader.

Ethnic bias is another factor that beclouds the conscience of many. To them, it is not a matter of the competence or the general public’s interest but relationship or connection with a particular candidate. We now live in the age that should have advanced beyond tribal sentiment which conflicts with common welfare and prosperity of the public. Unfortunately, a number of the population is unapologetically locked up in this world.

The unenlightened class which seem to just follow the crowd or popular opinion is also there, irrespective of whether the crowd heads the right direction or not. They have little or no understanding or interest in whether a candidate has the competence and skill to make their lives better. This generation substantially considers election as a periodic ritual whether or not it improves their lives. Shockingly, this class constitutes about substantial percentage of the voters.

The enlightened class may be divided into two categories, one, those interested in public duties and responsibilities to achieve a better society and the others who are not just interested. The interested enlightened class is the exact group of people calling for issue based campaign. This class is dominated in no particular order by professionals, the press, public affairs analysts, the youth, academics, entrepreneurs and career persons. This class actually knows what is at stake when election period comes and the implication of making or not making the right choice of candidate for the assiduous task of the office of the President. Some of this class also understands the state of the country and the difference that the next four years can make if the right choice is made. It is probably the part of this class that will read this piece.

The Candidates

We are in interesting times, perhaps the most interesting since the Fourth Republic with respect to Presidential elections. The background to this is stating the fact that the incumbent president GEJ was able to mobilise the sympathy of the Nigerian people in 2011 to win the election. He was like the unwanted and he used it well to gain free goodwill from the Nigerian people. I remember having a job interview with my former employer who asked me of my choice candidate in the 2011 Presidential election. I mentioned another person’s name but I quickly mentioned that GEJ was going to win the election. However, many waters have passed under the bridge and GEJ will not get the victory in the Feb. 14 poll on sympathy but on how much he is able to convince the Nigerian people of why he should remain in office.

It is imperative to attempt a fair analysis of GEJ administration. He has attempted to consolidate on the efforts of the previous governments to attract Foreign Direct Investment in Nigeria. This he has done to the extent that Nigeria was announced by the 2012 World Investment Report (by UNCTAD) as the biggest FDI destination in Africa in 2011. In 2014, Nigeria rose to be the largest economy in Africa taking over from South Africa. However, in April 2014, the World Bank boss stated that Nigeria is one of the top five countries having the number of the poor. The poverty rate is still above 70%. The question to ask is if the country has the largest economy in Africa and the 26^th in the world, where is the monetary gain hanging? Obviously, the foreign investors who have unconditional right of repatriation of their profits and funds have taken the proceeds of the economic growth to their home countries. More so, economic growth is different from national development. This is what happens when the larger or major investors in a country are foreigners while the local investors are minimal. Small and Medium Scale Enterprises (SMEs) which are the major drivers of economy struggle due to essential factors as lack of power and public infrastructures with expensive capital having high interest rates.

With respect to infrastructure, GEJ has attempted some projects that are long overdue. These actually align with his transformation agenda. Such projects include four airports expansion project; reconstruction of very important highways- Lagos-Ibadan Expressway, Benin-Ore-Shagamu Expressway, Enugu-Portharcourt Expressway, Abuja-Lokoja Expressway among others; privatization of the Power Sector, and establishment of nine new universities among others. While these are commendable, it need be noted that the privatization of the power sector has not particularly improved the supply of electricity neither has the establishment of additional universities improved the standard of education in the country.

The works of two Federal Ministries are the bedrock of GEJ’s transformation agenda- the Ministries of Agriculture and Industry, Trade and Investment. The former has worked in the reduction of food importation and pushing Nigeria to be the largest producer of cassava. The latter has made relentless effort to boost investment in the country, the recent move being the national automotive policy. To the extent that the policy is in the best interest of the country and will generate massive employment in the long run, it needs to be scrupulously revisited. The plan to increase the import duty on vehicles to 70% immediately is untimely and more inimical to the interest of an average Nigerian many of whom do not have prospect of increased finance to either outrightly buy a car or will be credit-worthy to the banks to obtain facility to buy a brand new car. This plan is elitist to say the least as only the rich will be able to afford a car and further eliminate the middle class. The previous administrations had reviewed importable cars to ten year and later fifteen years. These appear friendly in pursuing the motive of Nigerians using decent cars. A policy designed to help the people should not inflict untoward hardship on the people; when this happens, it becomes a failed policy.

Security has been the major challenge of the GEJ administration just as the world peace and security is threatened by terrorism. This is the area where the administration has scored the least mark by the public. The continuous bombing by the Boko Haram sect which have taken the lives of over 13,000 Nigerian people, the abduction of the Chibok girls and many others who are still in captivity, the taking over of some parts of the country etc have sold his administration as a rather ineffective one. What has facilitated the poor perception of people is the lack of swift response by GEJ himself in making statement on some and being unable to raise the hope of the Nigerian people that such will not happen again. The most unaccepted is his refusal to visit the Chibok community and parents of the abducted girls. Upon the visit and recommendation of Malala Yousafzai the Pakistani teenage icon for girl child education, he rather chose to invite them to the villa which was followed by scandal of bribery of the parents. The challenge of insecurity is still a major issue in the country.

Corruption has been the synonym of the GEJ administration and the approach of the President has not helped in selling him well to the people. Statement such as stealing is not corruption is most unacceptable to the Nigerian people. In 2013, the former governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria, Lamido Sanusi, who is now the Emir of Kano said $49 billion was diverted by state oil company, Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation, NNPC. He later reviewed the amount to $20 billion, and called for investigations after writing to President Goodluck Jonathan. No account has been given for this money but the apex bank chief was suspended.

The Presidential pardon given to Alamieyeseigha who actually brought shame to the country in 2005 in the UK by dressing as a woman to escape to Nigeria after being help by the authority for money laundering shows GEJ’s allegiance to his former boss than his Oath to defend the Constitution and uphold the law of the country. That is actually constitutes abuse of office and sends a message of his stand for corruption and money laundering to the Nigerian people and the international community. His administration has set up committees to look into activities of corrupt practices and has done nothing with the culprits when the reports were submitted.

The foregoing among others are what lies in the heart of the Nigerian people whose votes GEJ hopes to get him back into office. The main campaign policy of GEJ is to consolidate on the achievements of his transformation agenda in the first term, complete projects and do more in education, infrastructures, economy and use technology to combat corruption. He also said in Lagos that the youth will take us to the moon although with no defined strategy.

General Buhari on the other hand has his past as Governor of the North Eastern State in 1975 under the General Muritala Mohammed regime until February 1976 when it was divided into Bauchi, Bornu and Gongola States, Minister for Petroleum in the Obasanjo led Military government between 1976-1978, he was the Military Head of State from 1983-1985 and was Chairman, Petroleum Trust Fund under the Abacha regime. It is public knowledge that General Buhari has carved a niche for himself as regards integrity and discipline. This has to an extent guided his administration.

While General Buhari was Petroleum Minister, it is on record that he built three refineries in Nigeria: one in Port Harcourt, another in Warri and the third in Kaduna. He masterminded the construction of twenty oil depots in Nigeria, laying over 3200 kilometers of pipeline. While he was Petroleum Minister, about $2.8 billion dollars was alleged to be missing. However, panels of enquiry set up by General Ibrahim Babangida who accused him did not find him guilty.

As a Military Head of State that overtook office through a military coup from Alhaji Sheu Shagari, General Buhari reshaped the country in terms of discipline. Apparently, the justification of the Military coup was the outrageous corruption of the Shagari administration. General Buhari therefore launched a war against indiscipline. Hundreds of corrupt politicians were arrested and jailed. He launched the widely accepted environmental sanitation, the people were compelled to obey traffic rules, not seller could just abruptly increase the cost of products to make undue profit, it was criminal to cheat during examinations, and neglect of children by parents attracted penalty.

During this regime, he discouraged Nigeria’s dependence on loan such that he cancelled the Rail transport project signed by the Shagari administration. This however doesn’t sound logical in a capitalist world. Entities may not be so successful and competitive in the capitalist system without loans. But during his administration, the Naira was so valuable in the foreign exchange market and inflation rate reduced from 23% to 5%.

As Chairman of the Petroleum Trust Development Fund (PTDF), he was in control of billions of dollars and used this to engage in massive road construction projects across Nigeria that the country has embarked on in the last sixteen years, supplied textbooks and learning materials to schools nationwide, supplied drugs to hospitals and rehabilitated the mass transit system.

It appears from the foregoing that discipline and development are the watchwords of General Buhari. Considering the state of the nation, these two are needed to move the nation forward. Corruption, insecurity and economic growth are at the front burner of General Buhari’s campaign promises. Infrastructures and institutions are inevitable ingredients to achieve this.

Two things seem congenial for General Buhari which are his choice of party and the choice of running mate. The All Progressives Congress has carved a niche for itself in the states where it has governors. Unprecedented infrastructural development has been achieved in Lagos, Ogun, Oyo, and Edo to mention but a few. One may safely expect the infrastructural development to take another dimension at the national level just as General Buhari has done in the past. The second is the choice of Prof. Yemi Osinbajo S.A.N. as a running mate. It can only be expected that if General Buhari gave his chief of staff Tunde Idiagbon the leeway to execute ideas, the best of the Prof. from the University of Lagos will be welcome to achieve a better nation.

Irrespective of the prospects of all the candidates including GEJ and General Buhari which are discussed above, it is the votes of the electorates who are influenced by different factors that will determine who takes the mantle of leadership from the February 14 Presidential election. It is however imperative to state that the days of sentimental decisions in public affairs are over it truly we want Nigeria to live to her full potential of becoming more than the most populous black nation to one of the greatest and wealthiest nations in the world.

It is also important that those who threaten violence with no regard to the Peace Pact signed by candidates should remember that the International Criminal Court (ICC) is always open to try offenders for crimes against humanity. Lessons should be drawn from the Kenyan election of 2007 which was followed by violence. The current President and Vice President of Kenya, Uhuru Kenyatta and William Ruto who are being tried be the ICC for crimes against humanity were accused of being responsible for the macabre killing of 1555 people, the displacement of 500,000, and destruction of property. Before we accuse the ICC of being set up against Africa, we should learn and take caution.

The Presidential election which is scheduled to hold on February 14 which is globally known as lovers’ day is a day where electorates should show their love for Nigeria like never before. The wellbeing, safety and progress of the country should be the guide of the electorates in choosing who will best lead the country for the progress and prosperity of every Nigerian citizen.

Olusola Akinyemi Esq.

President

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