2015
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION IN PERSPECTIVE
The time has come again when
the national atmosphere is intensely charged. It is the battle for the office
of the presidency of the Nigerian state for the next four years. Incidentally,
there are fourteen contestants from different political parties but only two of
them have gained the center stage of national attention. I am also constrained
to focus this piece on the two candidates.
This piece is divided into two
parts. The first will address the electorates who vary from one to another and
what also influence them and their decisions are diverse. The other part shall
succinctly consider the candidacy of Goodluck Ebele Jonathan (GEJ) and General
Mohammed Buhari and will be concluded with how the various classes of electorates
may determine the outcome of the election.
Electorates- There are
different kinds of people constituting the electorates. Some are driven by
religious sentiments such as a Christian being against the candidacy of a
Muslim and vice-versa. However faith in a belief has not particularly helped
anyone without substance to serve the interest of the public more. An example
of the irrelevance of religious bias is the Governor of Lagos, who may not
perfect person but has written his name in gold in the history of Lagos State.
Religious sentiment though influence some people has no place in the competence
of any leader.
Ethnic bias is another factor
that beclouds the conscience of many. To them, it is not a matter of the
competence or the general public’s interest but relationship or connection with
a particular candidate. We now live in the age that should have advanced beyond
tribal sentiment which conflicts with common welfare and prosperity of the
public. Unfortunately, a number of the population is unapologetically locked up
in this world.
The unenlightened class which
seem to just follow the crowd or popular opinion is also there, irrespective of
whether the crowd heads the right direction or not. They have little or no
understanding or interest in whether a candidate has the competence and skill to
make their lives better. This generation substantially considers election as a
periodic ritual whether or not it improves their lives. Shockingly, this class
constitutes about substantial percentage of the voters.
The enlightened class may be
divided into two categories, one, those interested in public duties and
responsibilities to achieve a better society and the others who are not just
interested. The interested enlightened class is the exact group of people calling
for issue based campaign. This class is dominated in no particular order by
professionals, the press, public affairs analysts, the youth, academics,
entrepreneurs and career persons. This class actually knows what is at stake
when election period comes and the implication of making or not making the
right choice of candidate for the assiduous task of the office of the President.
Some of this class also understands the state of the country and the difference
that the next four years can make if the right choice is made. It is probably
the part of this class that will read this piece.
The Candidates
We are in interesting times,
perhaps the most interesting since the Fourth Republic with respect to
Presidential elections. The background to this is stating the fact that the incumbent
president GEJ was able to mobilise the sympathy of the Nigerian people in 2011
to win the election. He was like the unwanted and he used it well to gain free
goodwill from the Nigerian people. I remember having a job interview with my
former employer who asked me of my choice candidate in the 2011 Presidential
election. I mentioned another person’s name but I quickly mentioned that GEJ
was going to win the election. However, many waters have passed under the
bridge and GEJ will not get the victory in the Feb. 14 poll on sympathy but on
how much he is able to convince the Nigerian people of why he should remain in
office.
It is imperative to attempt a fair
analysis of GEJ administration. He has attempted to consolidate on the efforts
of the previous governments to attract Foreign Direct Investment in Nigeria.
This he has done to the extent that Nigeria was announced by the 2012 World
Investment Report (by UNCTAD) as the biggest FDI destination in Africa in 2011.
In 2014, Nigeria rose to be the largest economy in Africa taking over from
South Africa. However, in April 2014, the World Bank boss stated that Nigeria
is one of the top five countries having the number of the poor. The poverty
rate is still above 70%. The question to ask is if the country has the largest
economy in Africa and the 26th in the world, where is the monetary
gain hanging? Obviously, the foreign investors who have unconditional right of
repatriation of their profits and funds have taken the proceeds of the economic
growth to their home countries. More so, economic growth is different from
national development. This is what happens when the larger or major investors
in a country are foreigners while the local investors are minimal. Small and
Medium Scale Enterprises (SMEs) which are the major drivers of economy struggle
due to essential factors as lack of power and public infrastructures with
expensive capital having high interest rates.
With respect to
infrastructure, GEJ has attempted some projects that are long overdue. These
actually align with his transformation agenda. Such projects include four
airports expansion project; reconstruction of very important highways-
Lagos-Ibadan Expressway, Benin-Ore-Shagamu Expressway, Enugu-Portharcourt
Expressway, Abuja-Lokoja Expressway among others; privatization of the Power
Sector, and establishment of nine new universities among others. While these
are commendable, it need be noted that the privatization of the power sector
has not particularly improved the supply of electricity neither has the
establishment of additional universities improved the standard of education in
the country.
The works of two Federal
Ministries are the bedrock of GEJ’s transformation agenda- the Ministries of
Agriculture and Industry, Trade and Investment. The former has worked in the
reduction of food importation and pushing Nigeria to be the largest producer of
cassava. The latter has made relentless effort to boost investment in the
country, the recent move being the national automotive policy. To the extent
that the policy is in the best interest of the country and will generate
massive employment in the long run, it needs to be scrupulously revisited. The
plan to increase the import duty on vehicles to 70% immediately is untimely and
more inimical to the interest of an average Nigerian many of whom do not have
prospect of increased finance to either outrightly buy a car or will be
credit-worthy to the banks to obtain facility to buy a brand new car. This plan
is elitist to say the least as only the rich will be able to afford a car and
further eliminate the middle class. The previous administrations had reviewed
importable cars to ten year and later fifteen years. These appear friendly in
pursuing the motive of Nigerians using decent cars. A policy designed to help
the people should not inflict untoward hardship on the people; when this
happens, it becomes a failed policy.
Security has been the major
challenge of the GEJ administration just as the world peace and security is
threatened by terrorism. This is the area where the administration has scored
the least mark by the public. The continuous bombing by the Boko Haram sect
which have taken the lives of over 13,000 Nigerian people, the abduction of the
Chibok girls and many others who are still in captivity, the taking over of
some parts of the country etc have sold his administration as a rather
ineffective one. What has facilitated the poor perception of people is the lack
of swift response by GEJ himself in making statement on some and being unable
to raise the hope of the Nigerian people that such will not happen again. The most
unaccepted is his refusal to visit the Chibok community and parents of the
abducted girls. Upon the visit and recommendation of Malala Yousafzai the
Pakistani teenage icon for girl child education, he rather chose to invite them
to the villa which was followed by scandal of bribery of the parents. The challenge
of insecurity is still a major issue in the country.
Corruption has been the
synonym of the GEJ administration and the approach of the President has not
helped in selling him well to the people. Statement such as stealing is not
corruption is most unacceptable to the Nigerian people. In 2013, the former governor of the Central Bank of
Nigeria, Lamido Sanusi, who is now the Emir of Kano said $49 billion was
diverted by state oil company, Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation, NNPC.
He later reviewed the amount to $20 billion, and called for investigations
after writing to President Goodluck Jonathan. No account has been given for
this money but the apex bank chief was suspended.
The Presidential pardon given
to Alamieyeseigha who
actually brought shame to the country in 2005 in the UK by dressing as a woman
to escape to Nigeria after being help by the authority for money laundering
shows GEJ’s allegiance to his former boss than his Oath to defend the Constitution
and uphold the law of the country. That is actually constitutes abuse of office
and sends a message of his stand for corruption and money laundering to the
Nigerian people and the international community. His administration has set up
committees to look into activities of corrupt practices and has done nothing
with the culprits when the reports were submitted.
The foregoing among others are
what lies in the heart of the Nigerian people whose votes GEJ hopes to get him
back into office. The main campaign policy of GEJ is to consolidate on the
achievements of his transformation agenda in the first term, complete projects
and do more in education, infrastructures, economy and use technology to combat
corruption. He also said in Lagos that the youth will take us to the moon
although with no defined strategy.
General Buhari on the other
hand has his past as Governor of the North Eastern State in 1975 under the
General Muritala Mohammed regime until February 1976 when it was divided into
Bauchi, Bornu and Gongola States, Minister for Petroleum in the Obasanjo led
Military government between 1976-1978, he was the Military Head of State from
1983-1985 and was Chairman, Petroleum Trust Fund under the Abacha regime. It is
public knowledge that General Buhari has carved a niche for himself as regards
integrity and discipline. This has to an extent guided his administration.
While General Buhari was
Petroleum Minister, it is on record that he built three refineries in Nigeria:
one in Port Harcourt, another in Warri and the third in Kaduna. He masterminded
the construction of twenty oil depots in Nigeria, laying over 3200 kilometers
of pipeline. While he was Petroleum Minister, about $2.8 billion dollars was
alleged to be missing. However, panels of enquiry set up by General Ibrahim
Babangida who accused him did not find him guilty.
As a Military Head of State
that overtook office through a military coup from Alhaji Sheu Shagari, General
Buhari reshaped the country in terms of discipline. Apparently, the
justification of the Military coup was the outrageous corruption of the Shagari
administration. General Buhari therefore launched a war against indiscipline.
Hundreds of corrupt politicians were arrested and jailed. He launched the
widely accepted environmental sanitation, the people were compelled to obey
traffic rules, not seller could just abruptly increase the cost of products to
make undue profit, it was criminal to cheat during examinations, and neglect of
children by parents attracted penalty.
During this regime, he
discouraged Nigeria’s dependence on loan such that he cancelled the Rail
transport project signed by the Shagari administration. This however doesn’t
sound logical in a capitalist world. Entities may not be so successful and
competitive in the capitalist system without loans. But during his
administration, the Naira was so valuable in the foreign exchange market and
inflation rate reduced from 23% to 5%.
As Chairman of the Petroleum
Trust Development Fund (PTDF), he was in control of billions of dollars and
used this to engage in massive road construction projects across Nigeria that
the country has embarked on in the last sixteen years, supplied textbooks and
learning materials to schools nationwide, supplied drugs to hospitals and
rehabilitated the mass transit system.
It appears from the foregoing
that discipline and development are the watchwords of General Buhari.
Considering the state of the nation, these two are needed to move the nation
forward. Corruption, insecurity and economic growth are at the front burner of
General Buhari’s campaign promises. Infrastructures and institutions are
inevitable ingredients to achieve this.
Two things seem congenial for
General Buhari which are his choice of party and the choice of running mate. The
All Progressives Congress has carved a niche for itself in the states where it
has governors. Unprecedented infrastructural development has been achieved in
Lagos, Ogun, Oyo, and Edo to mention but a few. One may safely expect the
infrastructural development to take another dimension at the national level
just as General Buhari has done in the past. The second is the choice of Prof.
Yemi Osinbajo S.A.N. as a running mate. It can only be expected that if General
Buhari gave his chief of staff Tunde Idiagbon the leeway to execute ideas, the
best of the Prof. from the University of Lagos will be welcome to achieve a
better nation.
Irrespective of the prospects
of all the candidates including GEJ and General Buhari which are discussed
above, it is the votes of the electorates who are influenced by different
factors that will determine who takes the mantle of leadership from the
February 14 Presidential election. It is however imperative to state that the
days of sentimental decisions in public affairs are over it truly we want
Nigeria to live to her full potential of becoming more than the most populous
black nation to one of the greatest and wealthiest nations in the world.
It is also important that
those who threaten violence with no regard to the Peace Pact signed by
candidates should remember that the International Criminal Court (ICC) is
always open to try offenders for crimes against humanity. Lessons should be
drawn from the Kenyan election of 2007 which was followed by violence. The
current President and Vice President of Kenya, Uhuru
Kenyatta and William Ruto who are being tried be the ICC for crimes against
humanity were accused of being responsible for the macabre killing of 1555
people, the displacement of 500,000, and destruction of property. Before we
accuse the ICC of being set up against Africa, we should learn and take
caution.
The Presidential election
which is scheduled to hold on February 14 which is globally known as lovers’
day is a day where electorates should show their love for Nigeria like never
before. The wellbeing, safety and progress of the country should be the guide
of the electorates in choosing who will best lead the country for the progress
and prosperity of every Nigerian citizen.
Olusola Akinyemi Esq.
President
Joseph
Initiative Ltd/Gte
